Jay Aldebert on LiveNOW from FOX

JAY ALDEBERT: Making sure you make that monthly payment by producing enough profit. Those two things do have impacts obviously on being able to grow and being able to add additional employees and hiring, so you might see it slow there as well. But this again was just a warning shot. The meetings at the end of October and December, seeing how this had an effect and inflation is the ones that business owners should be concerned about.

ANCHOR BOWEN KEDROWICZ: So at what point does fighting inflation with higher rates become a bigger threat to the economy than inflation itself?

JAY: So the biggest aspect is this isn't just an isolated incident. We have tariffs, tariff war going on right now, obviously impacting the price of material, so that's one aspect. You have increase in wages, that's a second impact, and then we have the third area of being that the individuals who have leveraged themselves. The country is really in love with scale, like growing, right, and what that requires is funding, and they tend to leverage themselves not looking at necessarily the impacts overall. So I would say that in terms of the economy it's going to have an impact on discretionary spending. So if there's people or businesses in those industries that are part of that type of spending, they're going to slow. And again, some of the bigger areas like if you're going to refurbish your home or home purchases in general, that's the intention of this increase and the possible increase by the end of the year, to slow that. So that's going to have impact on small, medium-sized businesses on many different levels.

ANCHOR: So are we looking at a temporary rate increase or can Americans be living in a higher interest rate environment for quite some time?

JAY: So we've enjoyed, as you said at the onset, it's been three years. There's been seven meetings since that, right? So the next meeting, which is scheduled by the end of October, they're not going to see enough data to be able to say hey, did this work, did this slow inflation, has demand gone down. So it is a position where once they see probably the December numbers, they're going to probably look at the increase again. I guess the biggest underlying thing here is spending has not slowed in any way. Right, and in other words, it's actually up 1.2 percent, and it doesn't sound like a big amount, but it is up. But the problem here is not the consumer and how much they're spending. It's where they're getting the money from. Savings is going down, and credit card debt in second quarter was up 21 billion dollars. So the issue is if you're just looking at the consumer spending you think that's great, but the financial health of the consumer is the biggest concern. And so as these rates get looked at, their intention is to slow the price of things in general. But what it's going to have an impact on is those individuals that have leveraged themselves to keep their lifestyle up.

ANCHOR: And you bring up a great point with credit cards. So what could we see happen with people, maybe that have tagged on some credit card debt? Is this going to be making it a lot harder to try and pay it off over time?

JAY: For sure. I mean, a percentage point, really, if we're looking at how much, that really a quarter of a percentage point I guess is the best way to put it. If you have 10,000 dollars worth of debt, it's not a huge impact over the year. It's when it starts compounding. The credit card rates, and I hate to say it, but they're already punitive in nature anyways, very high interest rates in most cases. So the consumer is probably weighing that kind of going okay an extra quarter point or an extra half point. But when it starts compounding, as you may see a string of them, and I hate to see it, but if there is a string of them, that's where it's going to be. Each household is going to have an issue obviously watching those debt payments drive higher.

ANCHOR: And is there any common misconceptions when it comes to a hike in the federal rate, hike in what it actually does?

JAY: Well, what people are thinking is that it is punitive, like all of a sudden my spending itself or any debt I have, it's going to be more expensive, or my new car purchase or my new home purchase. Yes, that does affect. But what they're really saying is in those financial health indicators I was just talking about with savings going down. When you increase the interest rates, obviously it's most to drive people to save more. If you're on the other side that if you're spending a lot and credit card debt is going high, they're trying to figure out how to reduce spending and increase the financial health. So there is a misperception that it's punitive. It's really just a warning shot to slow the consumption rate and doing it from a healthy position. That's really the biggest message that people should be getting about this hike.

ANCHOR: And then I thought it was interesting what you brought up with the tariffs as well. So can the Fed really control inflation when some of the price pressures are coming from outside things, outside elements even like the Iran war and what we're seeing happen with fuel prices?

JAY: So that's why they pay attention to those two indicators. Obviously there's the headline inflation rate, which is at 3.4 percent, but then we have the core inflation rate, and the core inflation rate, what it really just means is they take things out like you mentioned in terms of the Iran war, the driver, increase in energy costs, right? So energy costs and groceries in general, that's what they take out of them when they're comparing the core inflation as well as the headline inflation. So it's kind of, you know, the issue I have is that the inflation is going to drive higher with those tariffs in general, and obviously the energy spending and the energy price increases. So it's kind of hard to balance and look very clearly at how this hike increase has actually affected inflation. It's going to be a very steady balancing act to be able to really decipher really what is the true information we're getting and is it working.

ANCHOR: And so where will most or the majority of Americans really feel this rate hike?

JAY: I think it's on new spending, right? It's going to be how much is that new home if you're in that market. It's going to be on automobile purchases. That's what's going to be. If you're highly leveraged in terms of credit cards and lines of credit, as those hikes go up, the already, you know, difficulty in making those monthly payments, it's going to drive higher. So that's where they're going to see the hike really affect their household income.

ANCHOR: Jay, we covered a lot of ground here. Are there any other final thoughts that you have, any topics that I have missed that you want to touch on real quick?

JAY: I think just to the consumer and the business owner, retake inventory of really what the high-interest debt you have right now. Again, this was a warning shot. Make sure that you kind of look at what am I, what are my cash reserves, what is my savings, and am I really making a lot on those savings versus how much interest I'm paying on the credit cards and or other debt, and being able to kind of say I think it's probably better to pay down this debt than continue to add more to my savings. It's a finish of fiscal responsibility of weighing out and taking inventory of those aspects.

ANCHOR: All good tips. Jay Aldebert, thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate your time.

JAY: Thank you. This was great. Thank you. Take care.

ANCHOR CAREL LAJARA: We are continuing to follow the trade disputes between the US and Canada after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that Canada would be issuing retaliatory tariffs on US goods taking effect on September 8th. Now we know that the US is imposing 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion worth of Canadian goods and now Canada is responding. A lot to get to on this Sunday morning, so joining us next to break all this down is Jay Aldebert. He is the Chief Growth Officer of International Services Incorporated. Jay, good morning. Good to have you on.

JAY ALDEBERT: Good morning, Carel. Nice to be here.

ANCHOR: All right, so let's just start with the million-dollar question, right? Whenever we hear about tariffs and these stories that have continued throughout the last several months and we look at US consumers, Canadian consumers, governments, businesses, who is gonna be bearing the greatest costs of these tariffs?

JAY: It's going to depend on how fast somebody can pass the hot potato, I guess is the best way to put it. If it's small, medium-sized business owners, if their contracts aren't structured in such a way, it's gonna be obviously they're gonna bear the brunt. But if it is structured properly it will be consumers. So it's kind of a 50-50 split just based on proper administration.

ANCHOR: So we did just hear comments, right before I brought you on, from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Of course, he also took questions from members of the press. Before we get to how this could affect the US and Canada relationship, how it already has, when we look at both of these economies and we see how these tariffs are structured and the amount imposed by each of them, who is gonna feel that greatest negative effect, I guess I would say the US or Canada, based off of how we see the different goods being imported and exported between both countries?

JAY: It's actually gonna be both. On an immediate basis. This week specifically, you're gonna see a rise in cost for materials right across the board anywhere between 8 and 12%. So it's the small, medium-sized business owners that are gonna get hit right away on both sides of the border for sure.

ANCHOR: And then also because we're looking at different goods that are being impacted here from both sides of the border as you say, when we look at these industries and regions that are going to be very vulnerable, I mean we're talking about places like agriculture, steel, manufacturing, automotive, retail, energy. I mean there's a lot here in terms of the trade and the agreement between the US and Canada. Who is gonna be seeing those effects now?

JAY: So if you look at one side, if you're a consumer, it's the nice-to-have products that are going to affect you on an immediate basis. If you are a small, medium-sized business owner, which I deal with every day, they're going to see the impact. A lot of people think when you see these tariffs or these trade wars it's Canada against America or whoever the trade partner happens to be. In this particular case, specifically when you're outlining things like lumber or steel or copper, aluminum very specifically, when they look at a choice between can I buy American aluminum versus Canadian aluminum, it comes down to supply and demand. When you look at how much is consumed by the United States both on all those areas, the United States can't actually produce enough to cover the demand. And so as a result they're going to have to go to different markets and in most cases Canada makes up 80% of that. So you're going to have to deal with those tariffs on an immediate basis.

ANCHOR: We consistently say and bring up the fact that the US and Canada have been allies for a very long time. Historically they are allies. Is this very unprecedented that you see that the US and Canada, their administrations, cannot get to a consensus here at the table, and what kind of historical precedents could we look at to see how this would all play out?

JAY: So this one's kind of interesting because the tariff law that's being used is from the depressionary times 1930. It's been available to all presidents, but nobody's ever used it. The up to 50% tariff bypassing Congress is a major, major move and unprecedented. I've been doing this for 26 years, six administrations, five different presidents. This one is going to create a long process very specifically, and obviously the retaliatory on the Canadian side, you're going to see this lasting anywhere between 12 months to probably 18 months somewhere in that range. If you just look at the first administration, the trade war with China itself lasted 18 months and it's on phase one. So it's going to be prepared for it to be at least a year, not a month.

ANCHOR: Okay, so I'm glad that you mentioned that because this is obviously a long, ongoing process. I mean, we get these announcements of new tariffs, but, of course, I mean, it takes time. Some sectors, as you mentioned, and some people, businesses will feel the impact immediately. But, for it all to settle, it takes some time just to see the new normal. What does that period of prolonged uncertainty do when it comes to having effective trade?

JAY: It's a wall. You're not going to see that it's a shift in trade, it's a wall right now, and it won't be coming down. And the people that are going to smash into that wall first, and I hate to repeat it, but it's small, medium-sized business owners. They're going to feel the effects on an immediate basis, this week, very specifically. You're going to see probably an increase in material costs up to 18% by mid-September, and by October probably a 25% increase overall. So this trade structure itself is a tit-for-tat situation, and I don't think Ottawa, specifically, or Washington is looking at the effects on the small, medium-sized business owner at this quickly.

ANCHOR: So you have mentioned that a few times. Small, medium-sized business owners here. So that brings me to my next question. If you are falling into that category, you have a small business, you have a medium-sized business, you're watching this very closely. What is some advice or what do you think they should be thinking about right now just so that they don't feel that impact so hard? I mean, what can they be doing as this is moving along?

JAY: So the immediate answer is reprice any bid that they have, open bids. You know, whether it's manufacturing or construction or the trades, you gotta reprice immediately. A lot of times people are putting out these bids let's say from July and they have validity up to 60 days. With this move in material costs, this is going to have a huge impact right away. So reprice every bid, open bid you have. They gotta read their contracts, both sides, not only from the supplier, but obviously with their clients as well, and look at the escalation clause that have been built in there. And if there is one, specifically you're going to be able to pass obviously these tariff costs onto the consumer. I'm not saying that's a good thing, I'm just saying that obviously for small medium-sized business owners, that helps. They're going to have to cut their quote validity, I guess is the best way to put it, put it down to a week, not 30 days. And you're going to have to look at increasing pricing in other areas, such as labor. That's one of the areas you're going to have to see maybe a 7 to 12% increase in order to offset some of the costs they're going to see in the material increase.

ANCHOR: It's interesting here because we talk about some of these difficult, you know, choices that these business owners are going to have to make just to be able to stay afloat. Customers, no doubt, are also going to be facing these challenges because the prices are going to change for them. So what is something that you would tell a consumer, they're not a business owner, they're an everyday consumer, but as they look toward these tariffs and see them being implemented, what is something that you feel they should keep in mind because again, we don't know exactly how this is all going to play out. I mean, decisions, they can change any day.

JAY: I think the consumer has to look at it from a standpoint of negotiation. These are negotiationary times. They're also from a standpoint of competitive bid. You know, any situation in your life that you're looking at, taking your hard-earned money and investing in any way, look to negotiate first and look to get as many bids processed and make it a competitive market for any purchase that you're looking to make. That's obviously the advice I would give.

ANCHOR: And then, really as someone who studies this, how these countries are just trading and the impacts of tariffs, in your opinion, or your assessment I should say, what would be possibly the most rational outcome out of this between the US and Canada? What would be something that is beneficial to both countries?

JAY: If they see from an administrative standpoint on both sides how this is going to affect one of the largest employers on both sides. I hear them talk about big business, but small business itself employs the most amount of their population. So the most rational is that they'd realize within a short period of time and pull it off the table and go back to negotiation. This right here is kind of like an hors d'oeuvre, setting up the main course, which is going to be the USMCA negotiation, which is up this year in 2026. That's the large negotiation on pretty much every aspect. These are just obviously different elements.

ANCHOR: Well, Jay, it has been a pleasure to have you here to just kind of break this down again for a lot of our viewers. You know, some might not be too familiar with how tariffs are going to be impacting them or, again, you continue to hear these storylines and it's like, well, how are things going to change? So we like to continuously bring these conversations just to keep people up to date on what they should pay attention to. But before I let you go, is there anything else you feel that you have to add possibly something we didn't discuss in this conversation or something that you haven't seen any major news outlet discuss yet?

JAY: It's again the supply and demand aspect is nobody's paying attention to that. I mentioned it already but the other area that is of concern is small medium sized businesses they don't really look at the aspects of it's if I have a project I'm gonna have to buy this. Really understand and pay attention to the numbers. That's a big issue in both countries is financial literacy. That's the only area I would say that needs to be focused on in a crisis like this.

ANCHOR: Jay Aldebert, the Chief Growth Officer at International Services Incorporated. Jay again it was pleasure having you on here at LiveNOW from FOX.

JAY: Thank you again for having me.